A significant political shift is emerging in eastern Germany, where working-class and younger voters appear prepared to deliver an unprecedented victory to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt.
The AfD, which received public support from Elon Musk in last year’s national election, has faced criticism for its perceived pro-Russia stance and was notably labeled a "right-wing extremist endeavor" by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. If successful, the party could become the first political entity outside of the traditional center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), to secure an outright majority in a German state parliament, known as a Landtag, since the conclusion of World War II.
While other smaller parties have previously led governing coalitions in German states, no party outside the SPD or the CDU/CSU alliance has ever held a single-party governing majority in Germany since the Federal Republic was re-established in 1949.
According to political observers, the AfD is a "nationalist, anti-immigration party on the far right that has become a powerful vehicle for voter anger at Germany’s political establishment — especially in the former East Germany. It campaigns for much tighter immigration, a stronger emphasis on German national identity, rejection of much of the green agenda and a softer line toward Russia."
Breaking the "Political Firewall"
An outright victory for the AfD, even in Germany’s sixth smallest state, would signify a breach of the political establishment’s so-called "Brandmauer," or "firewall." This term describes the collective refusal of other mainstream parties to collaborate with the AfD. The AfD currently holds the position of the second-largest party in the Bundestag, serving as the official opposition, after securing 20.8% of the vote in the February 2025 federal election.
In a broadcast interview on German television, Alice Weidel, the national co-chair of the AfD, advocated for closing Germany’s borders and withdrawing from Europe’s Schengen treaty. She stated, "Illegal migration, unchecked open borders, anyone can get in. Our internal security is suffering. People are honestly fed up with this situation."
"All Syrian refugees must have their protected status revoked because the reason for their flight no longer exists. These people must return to their homeland. If they don't leave voluntarily, then they must be deported by force."
Weidel further commented on the naturalization of many of the 1.3 million Syrians residing in Germany, asserting, "we must stop naturalizing these people who should actually be leaving our country. We have Islamization."
In May 2025, Germany's Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) formally classified the AfD as a "confirmed right-wing extremist" group, citing its "anti-migrant positions and an ancestry-based definition of German identity." However, this past February, a German court temporarily suspended that classification. Judges determined that while there was evidence of potentially unconstitutional statements and policies within the AfD, there was not sufficient evidence to characterize the party as a whole as extremist.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently expressed concerns to a state broadcaster, stating, "I cannot imagine international investors attending a ground-breaking ceremony with an AfD Minister-President to set up new plants and establish new businesses in Saxony-Anhalt… However, that is a decision for the voters in Saxony-Anhalt to make. The state will suffer considerable damage if things turn out as we now fear they might."
Local Appeal and Electoral Mechanics
These warnings have seemingly had little impact on the popularity of Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt. In a state with a population of just over 2 million people, Siegmund boasts a TikTok following exceeding 700,000.
A report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) highlighted Siegmund’s "polished appearance and professional tone lend respectability, and radical demands blend with footage of a community-oriented politician responding to audience questions… The AfD’s physical presence in the streets and omnipresence in the media helps to push the common populist ‘us versus them’ narrative: The AfD is here for you, the other parties are not."
According to Wahlrecht.de, an independent, non-partisan German website that monitors federal and state election polling, the AfD holds a significant 41%-23% lead over the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of Sunday’s vote, with three leftist parties trailing. For a party or coalition to control parliament and appoint a state Minister-President (equivalent to a governor), it needs at least half of the seats. So, how could a party with only 43% of the vote potentially win an election outright? The answer lies in Germany’s distinctive electoral system.
German voters cast two ballots: one for a local candidate, similar to electing a congressional representative, and another for a political party. This second ballot, the party vote, is crucial as it determines the number of seats each party receives in parliament. A critical stipulation is that any party failing to reach a 5% vote threshold receives no seats, effectively rendering those votes void. Currently, several smaller parties are hovering near this 5% mark. If they fall short, a party with 42% or 43% of the total vote could translate into more than half of the parliamentary seats. This scenario could lead to Saxony-Anhalt waking up to an AfD majority government, even if a clear majority of voters supported other parties, marking a first in postwar Germany.
Voter Demographics and Future Outlook
The CSIS report noted that voters are drawn to the AfD "because, or despite of, its extremist ideology. 60.5% of AfD voters hold a right-wing extremist worldview… At the same time, more than two in five AfD voters think that the party does not sufficiently distance itself from right-wing extremist positions." The report also identified that the AfD’s "strongest recent gains have been among voters 18–25 years old, where the party tripled its results compared to the 2021 national election."
Economic pressures, including rising expenses and unemployment, are reportedly driving younger voters towards the AfD. It has also been observed that younger voters are "kind of polarized because the other part of the youth in Germany is voting for the left party (Die Linke)."
Saxony-Anhalt may represent just the beginning for anti-establishment parties. Voters in neighboring Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the home state where former Chancellor Angela Merkel began her political career, will also head to the polls in two weeks. Polling data from Wahlrecht.de indicates the AfD currently leads the ruling SPD there, 35%-32%.
Conversely, in Berlin, where voters will also cast ballots in two weeks, recent polling averages show the far-left Die Linke in a statistical tie with the CDU at 20%, followed by the AfD at 18%. The Greens and the SPD each stand around 15%. While the majority of the AfD’s support originates from the former East Germany, the party maintains representation in 14 of Germany’s 16 state legislatures and holds 15 of Germany’s 96 seats in the European Parliament.